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Currently
there is a presidential election going on.
Election Day is more than 1 year from now, but already millions of
dollars have been raised and everything is underway. Everyday there are new polls tracking what
candidates are “favored”, “leading”, or “detested”. I would like to explain to you why those
things are completely pointless and are making you dumber.
People only
have so much room in their minds, they allow themselves to forget details all
the time, phone numbers, names, dates, and even things that were deeply
affecting to others or of global importance fade in people’s minds. This is less than ideal, but also
understandable. You cannot know
everything and since you have a role to play in society you must know certain
things and other facts must be sacrificed for this knowledge.
Sadly,
there is a side effect to this. People
must know certain things. And since the
things they remember most clearly tend to be very important to them, say the
face of a loved one, a deeply affecting story, or the launch codes, people
start to make a logical fallacy. That fallacy is:
“I remember it” = “Important”
This has
always been true of course, it is why advertising is a thing. Using novelty and trickery to have a product
stand out in the minds of people means they will conflate that product with
importance. Hence why “Just Do It”
evokes Nike in the minds of anyone who watches sports regularly or who has
played sports for any period of time. Or
why “Apply Directly to the Forehead” makes you think of charlatans who are
trying to cure your headaches with a giant tube of Chap Stick (this is a
thing).
Why am I
talking about this?
 |
| This is why. |
Donald
Trump has spent his entire adult life trying to will himself into
importance. He has plastered his names onto
giant buildings, casinos, golf courses, and TV shows. He has done his damnedest to make sure you
know who the hell he is. And whether you
know WHO he is… That is not important, what is important is that you remember
the name. And remember:
“I remember it” = “Important”
Donald
Trump has built his entire professional career out of this concept. He is the loudest, therefore you listen. He is the most known, therefore he is the
most important.
The obvious
retort to this is, “What about Jeb!”
Actually that wouldn’t be much of a retort, because the Bush family (of
which he is a part) is important. They
are exceptionally wealthy political carpet-baggers who have been governors and
presidents, and who are friends with numerous diplomats and political king makers. You don’t necessarily know Jeb,
but your brain remembers “Bush”. And as
we have established:
“I remember it” = “Important”
And that
(along with millions and millions of dollars) is why TRUMP and BUSH were the
initial front runners. But, in more
recent time others have begun jockeying for position and this is when you point
to the current “frontrunner” (after TRUMP) is Doctor Ben Carson.
Carson was
previously unknown so why the hell would people remember him? I think you already kind of know the answer but
you feel bad for knowing it. Here is a
hint. In the picture below, can you pick
out who Carson is thru the blur?
 |
| Try and identify all 10. I can't now and I am the one who blurred the photo. |
He is the
only black candidate running for the Republican nomination. That means that people will be able to google
the phrase “black GOP candidate” and get him.
Only one other candidate, Carly Fiorina has that kind of advantage (andhere numbers go up significantly shortly after each debate once people have had time to digest who each of these candidates are). But Carson is also the only medical doctor
running (unless I missed someone) giving him another slight advantage when it
comes to being remembered.
“I remember it” = “Important”
Now is the
time you can point to Senator Rubio and Governor Jindal and say, “Your theory doesn’t hold up
because these two minority candidates are not doing well, and they are somewhat
known for having given speeches in rebuttal to President Obama’s State of the
Union addresses. Surely they would have
enough going for them.” And then follow
it up with, “And besides, BUSH, is no longer near the lead, his star fell
pretty far, how do you explain that?”
Here is how
I answer that, because all three of them are now being remembered for
sucking. BUSH is not well liked, people
voted for him initially because he was the only name they knew (aside from
TRUMP) and so they said, “Yeah, sure, I guess I would go with him, at least I
know who he is.”
 |
| This is the most memorable thing I know about him. And I am from Florida. Hell, I would bet most people don't even know he is a Florida Senator. |
Jindal and Rubio are both known for
giving rebuttals to the president, but they did a bad job of it, also they are
massive hypocrites on the topic of immigration, and why they are focusing on
that topic bewilders me because all the crazy jingoistic people are already
voting for TRUMP, and since they are the least educated people out there they
are the ones most likely to just pick the big name and stick with it because
they don’t want to have to learn a bunch of other names, they have already made
room in their memories for remembering Donald.
“I remember it” = “Important”
And I know
lots of people are already writing me off when I write this. I am ignoring issues for the most part,
having only mentioned when talking about Jindal and Rubio. My points might also come off as racist and elitist
because I am painting the GOP as unable to remember more than a couple names
and overly fixated on race. I am also
not talking about the Democratic primary which currently only has 5 people
running (I would like to point out that the dominating front runners are a woman that shares a name with a previous president, and a Jewish man who cursesin political debates, making them somewhat more memorable). Those are all fair criticisms, but the reason
I wrote this was to point out the real problem.
These polls are god awful.
Political
polls that ask you about people fall victim to this huge problem.
“I remember it” = “Important”
No one
asked, “Who do you think you will vote for?” is being asked, “What do you care
about?” or “How do you feel about the economy?” and they have ZERO ability to
ask for nuanced questions that require nuanced answers, “How do you feel about
recent peace talks with Iran, and why do you feel that way?”
Instead,
these polls tell people, “This guy is popular” and herd mentality starts to
cause a snowball effect. “This person is
popular, I should remember them.”
 |
| "I think their bias is towards sensationalism and laziness. I wouldn't say it's towards a liberal agenda. It's light fluff so it's absolutely within the wheel house." |
“I remember it” = “Important”
And the
failings of these sorts of polls rests squarely on the news. They want names to be important because names
create a narrative, an unfolding drama that can be played out and serve as a
reflection of the highly nebulous “mood of the nation”. Rather than asking the nation about the
nation’s mood, and then talking about how each of the candidates might address
the concerns.
It is the
job of the media to gather information not on how people are metabolizing
names, but how people are living their lives and to talk about how political
parties can make people’s lives better.
To debate ideas and ask candidates to explain their ideas. Instead they are asking people about names,
and people can only remember so many names, so the people with the biggest
names get remembered.
“I remember it” = “Important”
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| I have no idea who the guy on the bottom middle is. |
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